When I looked at the forecast last night prior to bed, we had a 1% chance of storms today in Southwest Oklahoma. Now midway through the day, those storm chances have exponentially increased and meteorologists are predicting big hail as the main threat.

@jedcastles #severe #threat #instability #unstable #baseballsize #hail #gusts #70mph #low #tornado #threat #okwx #okc #oklahoma ♬ We Rise Against (Full) - Jonathan Paulsen

As we get closer to May, this is the new normal for the next eight weeks. They call it the fifth season for a reason. Big storms, big hail, and the possibility and historical record of tornadoes.

The good news today is the tornado threat is low, but hail is just as bad since it usually affects a greater number of homes.

All the same, when you see a forecast from a local TV station, you kind of have to take it with a grain of salt. They're part of the entertainment media so their forecasts are usually a little more exciting in order to boost ratings to sell more advertising.

The National Weather Service is well-funded by our collective tax dollars, so their forecast is as scientifically accurate as it gets. As a side effect, it's usually more mild in the grand scheme of providing a service.

From the National Weather Service in Norman

NWS Norman
NWS Norman

Is the going to be baseball size hail across Southwest Oklahoma? It's hard to predict the future, but NWS is predicting the potential for it is there. It's not a high probability, but there's enough data to suggest it could happen.

In this case, it's not when baseball size hail will fall... it's if.

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