Oklahoma’s Winter Outlook Is In, And The Almanacs Disagree

We've been hearing about the upcoming winter for months now, with early predictions of a potentially brutal season sending meteorologists down the rabbit hole of what El Niño could mean for Oklahoma. The Farmers' Almanac has its own ideas about the winter ahead, and even the persimmon seeds have been getting their annual inspection.

Now the Climate Prediction Center has released its winter outlook, and it's time to see what the National Weather Service is expecting for Oklahoma.

What NOAA Expects For Oklahoma This Winter

Here's what Weather.gov said.

The Climate Prediction Center's October 15 outlook covers December 2026 through February 2027, and the big influence this year is a very strong El Niño that tends to favor a more active storm track across the southern United States.

What does that actually mean? Well, for Oklahoma, we're gonna be wet than normal, but experience an otherwise normal winter season. The ocassional deep freeze is just as possible as it is any other year, as well as snow and ice, but nothing is centered on those being for certain. No more than any other normal year across Oklahoma.

The Farmers' Almanacs Disagree On Oklahoma's Winter

The Farmers' Almanac is leaning into the stormy side of things, predicting a wet and active winter across its South Central region, which includes Oklahoma. Its forecast calls for the potential for sleet, freezing rain and snow when colder air runs into all that moisture, but I'm pretty sure it doesn't take a meteorological degree to predict any of that for a general rule of winter in Oklahoma.

The (other) Old Farmer's Almanac has a different prediction for the Texas-Oklahoma region, calling for warmer and drier conditions overall, with a chance of snow early in the new year.

And then there's the persimmon seed. According to Oklahoma folklore, the shape inside a cut-open seed offers a hint about winter. A spoon means snow to shovel, a fork means a milder season, and a knife means cold winds... And they've been showing spoons so far this fall. I suppose we'll see how that works out.

It's important to note that the Climate Prediction Center's outlook isn't a regular forecast. It's really long-range, very loosely based on past patterns, and probably still the best guess for what's to come.

We'll have to wait and see how it all shakes out. As of now, while there's a call for more precipitation, it's anybody's guess whether that's rain, sleet, snow or ice.