David Payne Predicts Big Ice And Snow Events For Oklahoma This Winter

Oklahomans should get ready for a winter with big ice and snow events. News 9 Chief Meteorologist David Payne outlined his winter forecast for Oklahoma, and he's predicting above average precipitation and below average temperatures.

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Oklahoma has already had a taste of winter with the state receiving its firs frost by the end of October. Since then, it's been a mild November but winter will soon be on its way. During his winter forecast, David Payne said, "If you like winter, then here we go."

This year has been wild year for weather, according to Payne, Oklahoma has seen large hail, several bouts of tornadoes and flooding, and now it's time for possibly big ice and snow events thanks to a strong El Nino.

How bad will the ice and snow be this winter?

Payne is predicting big ice and snow events during the latter half of winter, so after January 2024, Oklahoma could start to see the above average precipitation and below average temperatures come together. Last year, Oklahoma didn't see that much snow. According to Payne, the last time Oklahoma City had a big amount of snow was during the winter of 2020-2021 with 22.5 inches of snow in total.

According to Payne, Oklahoma receives the most snow during the month of February with an average of 2.4 inches. The least amount of snow Oklahoma ever had was in 1934 with just a trace amount of snow. And the snowiest winter Oklahoma ever saw was in 1948 with 25.2 inches of snow.

Here are the key factors to the 2023-2024 winter forecast for Oklahoma.

Payne outlined four key factors for Oklahoma's 2023-2024 winter forecast, which includes:

• A Strong to Very Strong El Nino
  • El Nino is currently keeping the sea surface temperatures warm, which will keep the jet stream further south, which means increased moisture for Oklahoma.
• Active Strong Storm Track
  • The El Nino is what will give Oklahoma an active storm track.
• Increasing Snow Pack North
  • Areas of Canada and further north are seeing above average snow coverage, which will keep the air colder. And that air will soon make its way south to Oklahoma.
• Polar Vortex Weak or Strong
  • The Polar Vortex is the cold air that comes down from the polar regions. Whether or not this vortex is cold and strong enough to reach Oklahoma remains to be seen.

Oklahoma could see above average moisture and below average temperatures this winter.

The main takeaway from Payne's winter forecast is that Oklahoma could see above average moisture and below average temperatures this winter. But the areas in the south of Oklahoma could see much above average precipitation this winter and temperatures much below average. All of this means that the snowfall forecast for Oklahoma is above average this winter, which will include ice and sleet.

All of this is to begin in December but is expected to ramp up in January or February of next year, which is where we could see the big ice and snow storms. Good news is with this increase in moisture, the drought in Oklahoma is expected to improve.

Overall, Payne rates this winter at a six with ice and snow at times on a scale from one at "Not a Big Deal" to nine at "Katy, Bar the Door." A six is just above a five at "Snowball Fights." So, again, if you like winter, here we go.

Click here to watch Payne's full 2023-2024 winter forecast.